The 2020 Super Tuesday vote has been taken. The final result may not be known for a while (days) pending mail-in ballots and final counting. It is now time to take stock of where we sit today in terms of the political landscape for the presidential election in November.
Joe Biden did better than expected, winning 8 to 10 states (depending on final counts), though this does not tell the whole story in terms of delegate counts. Here is the current tally (which will change in time) of delegates from Real Clear Politics (note that California and Texas have yet to fully report – so don’t let the delegate counts fool you.):
Key post-Super Tuesday results takeaways:
- Joe Biden benefited heavily from the Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and to a lesser degree Beto O’Rourke in his last-minute surge. This is the apparent coalition of DNC insiders around Joe Biden. The power of the media wins again.
- The establishment Democrats showed discipline and coalesced around Biden. The Progressives not so much, as Elizabeth Warren refused to bow out and support Sanders – this caused Biden to win states where Sanders would have won.
- Joe Biden did better than expected in Alabama, North Carolina, and Virginia. Even in states like Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Maine, he did well.
- However, Sanders may eventually have an even to slightly higher delegate count when all is said and done – but it may not be enough to counter issues Sanders will have going forward.
- Micheal Bloomberg’s money bought him a seat at the negotiation table for a second or later round convention ballot.
- Joe Biden will need to thank Klobuchar for her key endorsement, possibly earning her a position on the short-list for the vice president spot. Sanders and Warren have no choice but to team up for the Progressives.
- African Americans went for Biden, and Hispanics went for Sanders. The Progressive message has not played well with African Americans. For Hispanics, the immigration policies of Sanders would be more favorable to them.
- Exit polling reveals: College-educated women, older voters, and rural areas went for Biden. Sanders fared better with younger voters and in metropolitan areas. This outcome suggests more of a desire of many voters opting for stability in policy rather than moving to more radical socialist policies.
- Healthcare and electability were the key issues. Polls indicate that a significant number of voters made up their minds in the final moments of voting, Polls are not necessarily wrong, they merely can shift in a brief period of time.
- Turn out was heavy, many areas reporting records and double the number of voters from past primary years voting.
Obviously, Trump is well on his way for the Republican convention win – no surprise here. But in all, the outcome of Super Tuesday was a great day for Trump. Here are the takeaways for Trump:
- The Democratic party is greatly divided between the center-left and Progressive wings. It will be demotivated going forward if they can’t find a way to rebuild.
- Listening to the Sander’s and Biden’s Super Tuesday’s speeches, the gloves might be coming off, and the attacks could intensify amongst them. If Sanders loses again, yes he will endorse his opponent, but bad feelings will linger. Giving ammunition for Trump after the conventions this summer.
- Democrats will expend their campaign coffers attacking each other, though if Bloomberg brings his money to the table, this could obviate this. Of course, if Bloomberg’s money plays a major role in the campaign, it makes the Democratic party, not the party of the people, rather of the donor class.
- African Americans are more conservative than we have been led to believe. Fertile ground for Trump to win votes in November.
- Given that the Democratic candidate will be male and if the choice is Biden, the women vote will not be a foregone conclusion in November due to his “Creepy Joe” stigma – leaving again fertile ground for Trump to gain support. This could be overcome somewhat if the Democratic vice presidential choice is female.
- If Joe Biden is the Democratic choice, the Biden and Obama area corruption comes into focus. A very fertile ground for Trump to go on the attack.
So where do we go from here? Though the delegate count is close, the primary calendar going forward would tend to favor Joe Biden – smaller more rural and African American areas. Sander’s needed to do better to overcome the coming primaries and win on a first ballot at the Democratic convention this summer. As stated in our pre-Super Tuesday analysis we gave the advantage to Sanders. This has changed, it is now advantage Joe Biden.
We still may be looking at a brokered convention, but as we stand today Biden could eventually win in subsequent convention votes – not to even consider the donor backing of Bloomberg. Many Democratic voters simply are not as radically Progressive as we have been led to believe. The fear of socialism led by Bernie Sanders gripped the Democratic party. Even as it might affect the down-ticket candidates as well. Does a Democratic candidate really want to be known as a socialist?
But do watch for the Black Swan events. Joe is not young, health issues, gaffe-prone and the race is not over by a long shot. Then there are events on the ground like the Coronavirus, potential geopolitical events, and the economy that could change everything.
The political season is just getting started, so keep your popcorn nearby. Either way, the Trump chances are turning from good to great!